The Science

This section contains some background information into the science behind climate change and the impacts it is predicated to have.

Climate refers to the average weather experienced over a long period, typically 30 years. The Earth’s climate has changed many times in response to natural causes. The term climate change usually refers to changes that have occurred since the early 1900s.

Natural and human factors both affect global climate. Natural causes include interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, changes in the Earth's orbit and volcanic eruptions. Humans influence global climate by releasing greenhouse gases - like carbon dioxide and methane - into the atmosphere. These gases absorb energy that is radiated from the Earth’s surface, warming the atmosphere and increasing temperatures globally.

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world’s most authoritative body on climate change, concluded that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gas concentrations.

Key impacts of climate change for the South West

• The region is becoming warmer and by the 2050s average temperatures may be as much as 3.50C warmer in summer;
• High summer temperatures are becoming more frequent, and very cold winters are becoming increasingly rare;
• Winters are becoming wetter (a 5 - 20% increase is expected by the 2050s), whilst summers are becoming drier (10 - 40% decrease by the 2050s);
• Relative sea level continues to rise, and could be as much as 80cm higher by the 2080s;
• Changes to insurance costs and coverage are expected, in particular in vulnerable geographic areas or economic sectors;
• Loss of habitats and indigenous species could occur as well as longer growing seasons and increased potential for novel agricultural crops.

There is a huge amount of climate change information available - but for the most up to date projections for the UK and the South West, visit the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) website - www.ukcip.org.uk and the UK Climate Projections